The pace of growth in emissions has slowed in recent years. BP estimates that China`s emissions growth averaged 2.6% between 2008 and 2018. China is now responsible for 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions, almost twice as much as the second largest emitter: the United States with 15%. Using World Bank data on future population size and level of economic development, they indicate « optimistically » that the country`s total emissions will therefore peak at 13 to 16 gigatonnes of CO2, which is expected to take place between 2021 and 2025. Wang says Dr. Jan Ivar Korsbakken, a climate economics expert at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, says that while the analysis is « compelling when read on its own terms, » it should not be read « as a definitive projection » for China`s peak emissions. He says the carbon letter: He says the results show how Chinese cities are « paying more attention » to environmental issues, including greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution as they get richer. The « new normal, » a term used by Chinese Premier Xi Jinping in 2014, refers to the slowdown in economic growth expected in the years following the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Most Chinese climate models are either CGE models such as IAM and China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM) or bottom-up models such as the MARKAL-EFOM Integrated System (TIMES) and Long-Range Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). None of the existing models fully reflect all the important climate policies that, in fact, already influence carbon emissions in China. CGE models reflect climate policies that operate through price mechanisms under the assumption of a perfectly efficient economy and that, for reasons of simplicity, often use a carbon price as a proxy for all types of climate policies3,8.
Bottom-up models may include more detailed measures to combat climate change at the sectoral level, but often do not cover macro-climate policy and policy interactions. Chinese President Xi Jinping announced late Tuesday (September 22nd) that he wants to reach peak emissions by 2030, followed by a long-term goal of becoming climate neutral by 2060. From a methodological point of view, the mixed methods approach increases confidence in the results that should influence political decision-making on which policies need to be reformed and which new policies to develop and implement. However, some uncertainties and restrictions should be highlighted for an accurate interpretation of the results of the study. First, the impact of the policy is very sensitive to assumptions about the specific policies used to achieve emission reductions and how those policies are implemented. It is clear that assumptions about the range of possible policy instruments and their implementation can lead to large differences in the resulting CO2 emission reductions. . .